We worked independently on these projections, and were surprised that in a Draft with so much uncertainty at the top that we matched each other on eight of the first nine selections. Our predictions and analysis are below, and full scouting reports for all of these players can be found at MLBPipeline.com's Prospect Watch.
1. Phillies
Callis: Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS (Carlsbad, Calif.)
Puk might offer more upside, but Moniak has a high ceiling, too, and a higher floor as a surefire center fielder with as much pure hitting ability as anyone in this Draft. Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis and California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford are other possibilities for Philadelphia.
Mayo: Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS (Carlsbad, Calif.)
Even at this late stage, the Phillies are still not 100 percent sure of what they're going to do at this spot. Moniak is the name most are mentioning, but don't count out Lewis just yet.
2016 Draft: Mickey Moniak, OF
Draft Report: Mickey Moniak, high school outfielder
Mickey Moniak has emerged as one of the better high school bats in the nation who makes consistent, hard contact at the plate
2. Reds
Callis: Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
Puk didn't help himself with a lackluster start in the NCAA regionals on Saturday, and Cincinnati now appears poised to take Senzel regardless of what Philadelphia does.
Mayo: Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
The Reds do like Florida lefty A.J. Puk, too, but it appears they like Senzel, arguably the best college bat in the class, a bit better.
3. Braves
Callis: Corey Ray, OF, Louisville
In the last week, Atlanta has moved off of Puk and switched its preference among college outfielders from Lewis to Ray. The Braves were out in force at right-hander Ian Anderson's start on Saturday and covet the New York high school right-hander. They'd love to push him to their supplemental first-round pick at No. 40, though the unlikelihood of that actually happening could spur them to take Anderson here.
Mayo: Corey Ray, OF, Louisville
Most of the buzz here is between Ray and Lewis, the top two college outfielders, and the Braves continue to discuss both. There has also been a good amount of noise about a potential deal involving Anderson.
4. Rockies
Callis: A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
If Philadelphia passes on Moniak, Colorado would snap him up. Otherwise, the Rockies will decide among Puk, Lewis and Kansas high school right-hander Riley Pint.
Mayo: A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
The prevailing thought is the Rockies would love to get Moniak, something that would happen if Lewis goes No. 1. Instead, the Rockies will look at Puk, Lewis and perhaps Pint.
5. Brewers
Callis: Zack Collins, C, Miami
Puerto Rican shortstop Delvin Perez looked like a good fit here before he reportedly tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Milwaukee was mulling over as many as seven players Wednesday night. If the Brewers make a decision based solely on talent, Rutherford could be their guy. They're also rumored to be looking to take a discount here so they can shift bonus-pool money to later selections. That may lead them to Collins, whose late-season slump otherwise could drop him into the teens, or Georgia prep third baseman Joshua Lowe.
Mayo: Blake Rutherford, OF, Chaminade Prep (Canoga Park, Calif.)
For several weeks, Perez and the Brewers were paired together, but when he reportedly tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, that seemed less likely (although still not completely out of the question). Milwaukee would probably have a strong interest in Ray here, and there is a lot of talk about potential deals, with Rutherford or perhaps with Collins.
6. A's
Callis: Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
Oakland seemed like a prime destination for New Jersey high school left-hander Jason Groome, MLBPipeline's top-rated prospect, and still could be, though he didn't help his cause by canceling a meeting with general manager Billy Beane this week. If the top three college position players and Lewis go in the first five picks and the A's pass on Groome, Lowe could be the choice.
Mayo: Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
This could be the first landing spot for Groome and the A's could be another team picking high looking to cut a deal. But with most thinking Lewis would be off the board right now, Oakland might not want to walk away from his tools.
7. Marlins
Callis: Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence (Ala.) HS
All spring, Miami has been linked to high school pitchers in general and Garrett in particular. Pint, Anderson and Texas prep right-hander Forrest Whitley are other options.
Mayo: Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence (Ala.) HS
Sometimes a name is associated with a team for so long, it becomes hard to believe. And sometimes, you just have to stick with that instinct. Garrett and the Marlins have been a pair for a long time, and they did scout him heavily during his high school season in Alabama.
8. Padres
Callis: Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (N.J.) HS
San Diego has three first-round picks, a need for high-ceiling talent and a willingness to gamble. The Padres have been all over Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill, a potential top-five pick had he not missed most of the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery, and know he won't get to their second choice at No. 24. But they may find Groome too tempting to pass up. Pint and California right-hander Matt Manning are two more power arms on San Diego's radar.
Mayo: Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (N.J.) HS
With three picks in the first round, the Padres can be creative and take some risks. If Groome goes ahead of them, they could look at Pint or Manning.
A look at prospect Groome's life
A look at the life of Draft prospect Jason Groome
Take an inside look at the life of top Draft prospect Jason Groome at his high school in Barnegat Township, N.J.
9. Tigers
Callis: Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (Overland Park, Kan.)
This is Pint's absolute floor, and there's a good chance he gets to Detroit if Colorado doesn't take him. If Pint isn't available and someone surprising doesn't fall, the Tigers could turn to Quantrill, Manning, Mississippi State right-hander Dakota Hudson or Louisville right-hander Zack Burdi, a good bet to be the first player from the 2016 Draft to reach the big leagues.
Mayo: Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (Overland Park, Kan.)
The Tigers would love it for Pint and his triple-digits fastball to still be around, something they didn't think possible not that long ago. If he is off the board, they might take a long look at Manning and his premium heater.
10. White Sox
Callis: Blake Rutherford, OF, Chaminade Prep (Canoga Park, Calif.)
Chicago would love a shot at Windy City native Ray but probably has to settle for Rutherford or fast-rising Boston College right-hander Justin Dunn. Rutherford is trying to slide out of the first round to a club with a huge bonus pool, but too many teams are interested in him for that to happen. The White Sox also like Wisconsin high school shortstop Gavin Lux but would prefer him with their second first-rounder at No. 26 and just might be able to get him there.
Mayo: Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College
If the Brewers don't make a deal with Rutherford, this could be a landing spot for him. But the White Sox often go the college pitching route, and no college pitcher had more helium than Dunn, the reliever-turned-starter who just helped pitch Boston College to a surprising Super Regional performance.
11. Mariners
Callis: Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College
Seattle very well could wind up considering the same two players that Chicago does in Rutherford and Dunn. Virtually every team in the 11-15 range would love Garrett if he gets out of the top 10.
Mayo: Zack Collins, C, Miami
There has been a lot of talk about Dunn landing here, but he's off the board in this scenario, and there was a sense that perhaps Seattle wasn't on him as much as everyone thought. The Mariners have never shied away from bats, and Collins has one of the most advanced ones among the college crop, with his name surfacing as high as No. 5.
12. Red Sox
Callis: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS (Clifton Park, N.Y.)
Unless someone falls, Boston's prime targets would be Rutherford, Anderson, Quantrill and Collins (who likely gets here if Milwaukee passes on him).
Mayo: Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia
The Red Sox have been associated with many different kinds of players, from high school arms like Anderson (Jim's choice) to high school bats like Nolan Jones, who worked out for them recently. Thaiss might be a bit of a dark-horse candidate here, but college bats often move up and his is a very good left-handed one, something the Red Sox covet.
13. Rays
Callis: Joshua Lowe, 3B, Pope HS (Marietta, Ga.)
Another club on Rutherford's trail, Tampa Bay is associated mostly with high schoolers. This choice could come down to Lowe vs. Lux, with Whitley also a factor.
Mayo: Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail Academy (Kenosha, Wis.)
While the Rays could go college arm here, especially if someone like Dunn got to them, there are many high school players they have an interest in, including (but not limited to) high school arms like Manning, lefty Joey Wentz (Kan.) and right-hander Whitley (Texas) and prep bats like Alex Kirilloff (Pa.), Lowe (Ga.) and Lux, who has taken a huge step forward by getting stronger and showing he definitely can stay at shortstop.
14. Indians
Callis: Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford
Cleveland isn't afraid of taking a high school arm, but they'll be pretty well picked over by this point. The Indians may buy low on Quantrill rather than go with Whitley or a bat such as Collins or Pennsylvania prepsters Kirilloff or Jones.
Mayo: Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford
Quantrill is one of the biggest wild cards in the Draft as he has made just three starts since his freshman year because of Tommy John surgery. He did work out for a select number of teams, including the Indians. Cleveland took Brady Aiken a year ago, showing it isn't afraid to go down this path.
2016 Draft: Cal Quantrill, RHP
Draft Report: Cal Quantrill, college pitcher
Cal Quantrill's recovery from Tommy John surgery will be one of the more interesting story lines coming from this year's Draft class
15. Twins
Callis: Alex Kirilloff, OF, Plum HS (Pittsburgh)
Minnesota would prefer a bat to a college arm, with Rutherford and Kirilloff the leading candidates.
Mayo: Alex Kirilloff, OF, Plum HS (Pittsburgh)
Most of the talk has been about high school players here, and some of the top prep arms could come into play, if signable. Kirilloff and his left-handed bat could land at any point in this area of the Draft as well, with the Twins having definite interest.
16. Angels
Callis: Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State
Los Angeles would have interest in Kirilloff and otherwise will look at college pitchers such as Hudson and fellow right-handers Cody Sedlock (Illinois), T.J. Zeuch (Pittsburgh) and Jordan Sheffield (Vanderbilt), plus high school hitters such as Georgians Lowe and Will Benson.
Mayo: T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh
This could be a very good landing spot for Kirilloff, a player the Angels scouted heavily. With him off the board, most of the other options seem to involve college pitchers, like Dunn (off the board in this scenario), Illinois right-hander Sedlock or Hudson. Zeuch's size (6-foot-7), plus fastball with sink and projectability might be too much to pass up here, though.
17. Astros
Callis: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois
Barring a surprise dropping in its lap, Houston also is going to be sifting through college arms (Hudson, Sedlock, Zeuch, Kent State left-hander Eric Lauer) and prep bats (Lowe, Jones). This might be Collins' floor.
Mayo: Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State
While the Astros looked at many high school arms for this pick, like Anderson, it's been college pitchers who have come up more of late. The hurlers mentioned above with the Angels all could come into play with this pick as well.
18. Yankees
Callis: Forrest Whitley, RHP, Alamo Heights HS (San Antonio, Texas)
It looks like pitchers for New York and probably a high schooler. Anderson probably doesn't get by the Yankees, with Whitley, California right-hander Kevin Gowdy and Texas lefty Kyle Muller more likely to be available. Zeuch could be the guy if New York goes the college route.
Mayo: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS (Clifton Park, N.Y.)
The top available high school arms are possibilities here. Anderson, mentioned above in a possible deal with the Braves, was throwing extremely well down the stretch, carrying mid-90s velocity deep into his most recent start when he struck out 16.
19. Mets
Callis: Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS (Sacramento, Calif.)
New York has been tied to college performers all spring, such as Wake Forest third baseman Will Craig and Virginia catcher Matt Thaiss. The Mets' pair of first-rounders gives them enough bonus-pool cash to make a run at Rutherford or Manning, who's floating a $5 million price tag to get him to give up the opportunity to play baseball and basketball at Loyola Marymount.
Mayo: Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest
Another one of these mentioned too-often-to-be-true associations, it is true the Mets are interested in bats. Craig could go a bit earlier, especially to a team that values college performance, but if he's here, there would still be strong interest.
20. Dodgers
Callis: T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles also would be interested in Manning if he scares off the first 19 clubs. The Dodgers have scouted a lot of shortstops but are more likely to wait until their second first-rounder (No. 32) or their supplemental first-rounder (No. 36) to take one. The priority here would be a college arm from among Hudson, Sedlock, Zeuch, Sheffield, Lauer and Georgia right-hander Robert Tyler.
Mayo: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois
With multiple picks, the Dodgers can be a little creative. Most of the talk has been about college arms with this first selection, with Vandy's Sheffield often mentioned here. If they were to go this route, they'd likely take the top college arm still available and Sedlock could be it.
21. Blue Jays
Callis: Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran Christian School (Kennesaw, Ga.)
My first 20 projected picks would represent close to a worst-case scenario for the Blue Jays in terms of players they like being gone and those they don't as much remaining on the board. If the best high school arms and Quantrill are unavailable, the supremely athletic Trammell could be the consolation prize.
Mayo: Forrest Whitley, RHP, Alamo Heights HS (San Antonio, Texas)
Toronto could be in on the top high school arms available, with Whitley, Manning and Wentz being the choices in this scenario. There was also some late talk about Vandy outfielder Bryan Reynolds potentially being a bit here.
2016 Draft: Taylor Trammell, OF
Draft Report: Taylor Trammell, high school outfielder
Taylor Trammell does show some feel for hitting and his well above-average speed will help him reach base
22. Pirates
Callis: Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville
Pittsburgh has interest in local products Kirilloff and Zeuch but may not get the opportunity to take either. Burdi could bolster the Pirates' bullpen this year and be developed as a starter in the future, a la Chris Sale and Brandon Finnegan.
Mayo: Nolan Jones, 3B, Holy Ghost Prep (Bensalem, Pa.)
It might seem like the easy route to take, going with a Pennsylvania kid to the team in Pittsburgh. But there does seem to be interest in bringing Jones across the state and the Pirates certainly don't shy away from high school bats in the first round.
23. Cardinals
Callis: Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest
St. Louis matches San Diego with three first-round choices and could take collegians with all three of them.
Mayo: Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville
Burdi's name was moving up boards as the Draft approached, as high as the top half of the first round. This seems like a much more reasonable landing spot. Burdi could get to the big leagues in a hurry out of the bullpen, but some feel he has the stuff to give starting a try.
24. Padres
Callis: Delvin Perez, SS, International Baseball Academy (Ceiba, P.R.)
Perez's reported positive PED test will turn off several teams but won't knock him all the way out of the first round. The most talented shortstop in a Draft thin at that position, he makes more sense for a club's second selection than its first and will come at a reduced price. San Diego was considering him at No. 8 before his reported test results.
Mayo: Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Padres take a break from aggressively pursuing upside to acquire some advanced pitching. Sheffield isn't the biggest guy in the world, but he's thrown well for most of this season, for one of the best programs in the country (with a strong track record of producing professional pitchers).
25. Padres
Callis: Nolan Jones, 3B, Holy Ghost Prep (Bensalem, Pa.)
It's not inconceivable that San Diego could get Manning here, combining him with Groome and Perez to nab three of the Draft's highest-ceiling talents. The alternative could be a high school infielder such as Lowe, Jones or Lux, or perhaps one of the college arms. If the Padres want to do a discount to move money to another pick, options could include Florida right-hander Dane Dunning, Vanderbilt lefty Ben Bowden, Tennessee high school southpaw Ryan Rolison or Mississippi prep first baseman Walker Robbins.
Mayo: Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS (Sacramento, Calif.)
News of Manning's potential hefty price tag hasn't been a secret, a reported $5 million to give up playing basketball and baseball at Loyola Marymount. Many think teams with large bonus pools, such as the Phillies or Braves, are hoping Manning gets to them in the second round, but the Padres, with their three first-round picks, have the flexibility to potentially nab him before he gets there.
26. White Sox
Callis: Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail Academy (Kenosha, Wis.)
If Lux doesn't last this long in a weak Draft for shortstops, Chicago can choose among other high school position players (Benson, Trammell) or college arms (Lauer, Tyler).
Mayo: Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State
The White Sox could go 2-for-2 with college pitchers, though they would be thrilled if Lux did get to them here. Lauer had a very impressive season at Kent State, fitting the mold of advanced college lefty perfectly.
27. Orioles
Callis: Kyle Muller, LHP, Jesuit College Prep (Dallas)
Baltimore could dip into any of the demographics -- college position player (Thaiss, Florida outfielder Buddy Reed), college pitcher (Burdi, Lauer), high school bat (Benson), high school arm (Muller).
Mayo: Joshua Lowe, 3B, Pope HS (Marietta, Ga.)
Lowe, a talented two-way player from the high school ranks in Georgia, has heard his name all over the first-round map. There is still the possibility he goes much higher than this in a deal with a team in the top half of the first round, but there are many teams in this neck of the woods who would be very interested in his upside.
28. Nationals
Callis: Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia
After giving Florida prep third baseman Drew Mendoza in my last two projections, I'm leaving him out of this one because I don't believe he'll break his Florida State commitment. The Nationals seem to be focusing on collegians and Thaiss' hitting ability is attractive even if he probably has to move from behind the plate.
Mayo: Drew Mendoza, 3B, Lake Minneola (Fla.) HS
It's quite possible that Mendoza is unsignable due to his extremely strong commitment to Florida State. With back-to-back picks, the Nationals do have some room to be flexible and have shown a willingness to go after tough signs in the past.
2016 Draft: Matt Thaiss, C
Draft Report: Matt Thaiss, college catcher
Matt Thaiss has an advanced approach at the plate and solid power, especially on the extra-base front
29. Nationals
Callis: Bryan Reynolds, OF, Vanderbilt
Reynolds is another performer from a top conference and unlike Thaiss, he has a chance to stay up the middle at the next level. If Louisville right-hander Kyle Funkhouser has a chance to sneak into the first round for the second straight year, this is the most likely spot.
Mayo: Kyle Muller, LHP, Jesuit College Prep (Dallas)
Muller is another impressive two-way high school standout, but his future will be on the mound. He could be in the mix in any of a number of spots where high school pitching is discussed.
30. Rangers
Callis: Will Benson, OF, The Westminster Schools (Atlanta)
Texas likes supreme athletes, so Trammell, Benson and Reed are natural fits here.
Mayo: Will Benson, OF, The Westminster Schools (Atlanta)
Benson's tools intrigue many teams from the middle of the first round on, with the Rangers being a very possible landing spot. They certainly have not been afraid of taking high-ceiling, ultra-toolsy but a bit raw players in the past. The Padres and the Dodgers could also have interest.
Benson's five homers
Benson hits five out in High School Select HR Derby
Will Benson hit a combined five home runs in the High School Select Home Run Derby
31. Mets
Callis: Chris Okey, C, Clemson
Okey would give New York the college performer it passed up at No. 19, and he has a much better chance to be an everyday catcher than Collins or Thaiss.
Mayo: Bryan Reynolds, OF, Vanderbilt
Reynolds may have fallen behind the top pack of college bats a bit, but there is still a lot to like from the Vandy standout. As discussed earlier, the Mets are looking for bats and wouldn't mind picking up two advanced ones in the first round.
32. Dodgers
Callis: Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt
Though Los Angeles does want a shortstop, it could try to grab Florida Atlantic's C.J. Chatham at No. 36 and take another college arm from its preferred list here.
Mayo: Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran Christian School (Kennesaw, Ga.)
Trammell has considerable tools, but he also has some feel to hit, a reason why his name has being mentioned higher up in the round at times. There was talk of a team in the sandwich or early second round trying to work out a deal to get the former multi-sport standout to them.
33. Cardinals
Callis: Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State
At the end of the first round, St. Louis could snare Lauer, whose 0.69 ERA was the lowest for an NCAA Division I starter in 37 years, and Tyler, who may throw harder than any college starter in this crop. Other college arms they could consider include right-handers Connor Jones (Virginia), Logan Shore (Florida) and Jon Duplantier (Rice) and lefty Anthony Kay (Connecticut).
Mayo: Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia
There is no question about Tyler's arm strength -- he consistently maintained his mid-to-upper 90s fastball deep into starts. Whether he can remain a starter remains to be seen, but at the very least he's a short reliever who could be used in high-pressure situations. Any team that takes him would likely give him the chance to start.
34. Cardinals
Callis: Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia
If St. Louis wants a position player here, candidates include Thaiss, Okey, high school third basemen Carter Kieboom (Georgia) and Cole Stobbe (Nebraska), Oklahoma shortstop Sheldon Neuse and Auburn outfielder Anfernee Grier.
Mayo: Buddy Reed, OF, Florida
Reed's tools are undeniable and he is a premium athlete, one who is still relatively new to baseball. Whether he'll hit enough to use those tools consistently remains to be seen, but a team that thinks he can will take the chance.
0 commentaires:
Enregistrer un commentaire